This paper studies how firms’ technology adoption responds to the skill shortages created by population aging, and quantifies the cost for aggregate productivity. Using German administrative data, we document that younger workers complement new technologies: establishments with younger workforces adopt them at higher rates, and after adopting, hire disproportionately more young workers and raise their wages relative to older employees. We build on this evidence to quantify how aging affects aggregate productivity in an equilibrium model with endogenous technology adoption and frictional labor markets. Younger workers are more technologically proficient, while older workers have more experience accumulated on the job. Because frontier technologies are more productive but require technical skills, firms adopt them only when they can hire enough young workers to operate them. The calibrated model predicts that Germany’s projected aging reduces technology adoption by 6.5% and aggregate productivity by 0.5%, enough to fully offset the gains from a more experienced workforce. Finally, we find that Germany’s recent expansion of training subsidies, designed to address aging-induced skill shortages, raises long-run productivity by 0.8% and redistributes welfare from tech-proficient workers, whose comparative advantage erodes, to experienced workers who acquire technological skills through training.

How do advanced technology adoption and venture capital (VC) shape firm growth and macroeconomic outcomes? Evidence from U.S. Census microdata reveals that while VC is rare and advanced technology adoption is comparatively more widespread, firms that combine both are disproportionately important to the economy. VC-backed firms expand sharply after funding, with employment gains especially pronounced among technology adopters. Technology adoption alone is also followed by modest employment growth. A startup model featuring endogenous technology adoption and financing formalizes this complementarity. Removing either VC or advanced technology produces sizable macroeconomic losses, while tax and subsidy changes trigger substantial reallocation across firms.

Presented at the ASSA Meetings (2026), SED Conference (2025), Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings (2025), and Keio University (2024).

We study technology adoption in a labor market with search frictions, where worker training raises the productivity gains from adopting a new technology. Because trained workers acquire transferable skills, firms can benefit from training investments made by others. This free-riding problem delays both adoption and training. We apply the model to the diffusion of enterprise resource planning systems in Portugal and show that firms train fewer workers upon adoption as the technology becomes more widespread, consistent with the model’s mechanism. The calibrated model implies sizable output losses from underinvestment in adoption and training.

Presented at the Rome Ph.D. in Economics and Finance Conference at LUISS University (2025).

This paper shows that prior occupational history is a key determinant of entrepreneurial success. Using Portuguese administrative employer–employee data linking founders' occupational histories to firm outcomes, we find that managers are more likely to become entrepreneurs and that each additional year of prior managerial experience is associated with 5% larger firms by employment—with a stronger association for experience gained at larger firms. Furthermore, we show that managers account for a larger share of employment at larger firms. Consistent with the empirical findings, we develop an occupational choice model with on-the-job learning in which managerial experience increases entrepreneurial ability and firms display non-homothetic demand for managers. In the model, larger firms generate managerial experience that enables future entrepreneurs to operate at greater scale and employ more managers, creating a reinforcing feedback between firm growth and entrepreneurial human capital that we plan to quantify.

We study how mandatory wage disclosure in job postings changes firms’ wage setting and provision of non-wage amenities. Using New York City’s 2022 pay transparency law and data on job postings and employee reviews, we document a sharp increase in wage disclosure and higher average realized wages, but lower job satisfaction among new hires, particularly for work-life balance. A search model rationalizes these findings through the trade-off between wage transparency, wage equity, and firms’ incentives to provide amenities.

Presented at the Bank of Italy-EIEF Workshop on Applied Microeconomics (2024).